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Future Technology for Hybrid and Pure Electric Cars 2015-2025

Published: Feb 2015 | No Of Pages: 124 | Published By: IDTechEx

E-cars are oversupplied and changing in all respects but in this frenzy of birth and death the future is being created with hybrid cars rapidly gaining market share now and sale of pure electric cars likely to take off in the second half of the coming decade as certain technical and cost challenges are resolved. Toyota and Tesla have hugely benefitted from correct market positioning but now Toyota is betting strongly on fuel cell hybrids and Tesla on mainstream pure electric cars - both graveyards for many companies in the past. A vicious shakeout of car and battery manufacturers has commenced with the winners expecting riches beyond the dreams of avarice.

1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS
1.1. The market for electric cars
1.1.1. Definitions
1.1.2. Cars as part of the big picture
1.1.3. Further details of e-car trends
1.1.4. League table of top 13 electric vehicle companies
1.1.5. Awkward tipping point
1.1.6. Forecasting challenges
1.2. Forecasts 2014-2025
1.2.1. On-road cars
1.2.2. Geographical demand
1.2.3. US market in 2014
1.2.4. Europe and Japan
1.2.5. China
1.2.6. Successful strategies
1.2.7. Plug-in market dynamics
1.2.8. Security of forecasts
1.2.9. New models as lead indicator
1.2.10. MicroEVs/quadricycles etc
1.2.11. Golf cars will have no growth
1.2.12. Profitability
1.2.13. Why there will be a tipping point for pure electric cars
1.3. Disruptive change and merging of all parts
1.4. Range extenders including fuel cells
1.5. Batteries
1.6. Electric motors
1.7. Power electronics
1.7.1. Increased performance and complexity
1.7.2. Wide band gap semiconductors
1.8. Supercapacitors: more than meets the eye
1.8.1. Across batteries in cars
1.8.2. Completely replacing batteries in hybrid cars
1.8.3. Across fuel cells in cars
1.9. Plugging in: when, where, why?
1.10. Progress of Toyota and Tesla
1.10.1. Market and technology priorities
1.10.2. Toyota simplifies priorities and Tesla lands Gigafactory partnership
 
2. INTRODUCTION
2.1. The world wakes up to global warming and oil running out
2.2. Danger signs
2.3. Government support
2.4. Rapid increase in number of manufacturers
2.5. Can the grid cope?
2.6. Changing mobility needs - urban mobility
2.7. Fuel cell mobility
2.8. How green are fuel cell cars really?
2.9. Global Markets, the battery vs fuel cell war will be fought in China and the USA
2.10. Gigafactory
2.11. New forms of collaborative consumption - car sharing or car clubs
2.12. Narrow Vehicles
 
3. PURE ELECTRIC CARS
3.1. Consumer attitudes to electric vehicles
3.2. The car powertrain as a portfolio of technologies
3.3. Evolution of the value chain structure - the opportunity window
3.4. Manufacturing
3.5. The arguments against
3.6. Déjà vu
3.7. Golf EVs
3.8. Energy positive solar car
 
4. HYBRID CARS OVERVIEW
4.1. Construction and advantages of hybrids
4.2. Evolution
4.3. Market drivers
4.3.1. Leading indicators
4.4. History of hybrids and some planned models to 2015
4.5. Examples of 2015 hybrid car launches

5. HYBRID CAR MODES AND TECHNOLOGY
5.1. Series vs parallel hybrid
5.2. Modes of operation of hybrids
5.2.1. Plug in hybrids
5.2.2. Charge-depleting mode
5.2.3. Blended mode
5.2.4. Charge-sustaining mode
5.2.5. Mixed mode
5.3. Microhybrid is a misnomer
5.4. Deep hybridisation
5.5. Hybrid vehicle price premium
5.6. Battery cost and performance are key
5.7. Tradeoff of energy storage technologies
5.8. Advantages and disadvantages
5.9. Can supercapacitors replace batteries?
5.10. Supercabatteries or bacitors
5.11. What is a range extender?
5.12. What will be required of a range extender?
5.13. Three generations of range extender
5.13.1. First generation range extender technology
5.13.2. Second generation range extender technology
5.13.3. Third generation range extender technology
5.14. Energy harvesting on and in electric vehicles
5.15. Trend to high voltage
5.16. Component choices for energy density/ power density
5.17. Trend to distributed components
5.18. Trend to flatness then smart skin
 
6. 143 LITHIUM BATTERY MANUFACTURERS COMPARED
 
7. KEY ENABLING TECHNOLOGIES FOR CARS
7.1. Three key enabling technologies become six
7.2. Many new forms of range extender
7.3. Supercapacitors
7.4. Energy harvesting
7.5. Printed electronics and electrics
7.6. Lightweight design
7.7. Structural components and smart skin
7.8. Innovative charging
7.9. Military land vehicles and in-wheel motors
7.10. Third generation traction batteries
7.11. Tesla's battery coup - winners and losers
7.11.1. The theory says no
7.11.2. IDTechEx analysis
7.11.3. Enormity
7.11.4. Winners and losers
7.11.5. Infrastructure needs reduce
7.11.6. IDTechEx forecasts more cautious
7.11.7. Blood bath
7.11.8. Territorial implication
7.11.9. China and Korea
8. FUEL CELL CARS FCEV
8.1. Overview
8.2. Current status and potential
8.3. History/development of the technology
8.4. Mass market
8.5. Fuel cell vs. other powertrains
8.6. Hydrogen infrastructure:
8.7. Value proposition
8.8. Standards
8.9. Necessary investment
8.10. Improvement of the legislation in North America and Europe for hydrogen vehicles
8.10.1. USA
8.10.2. EU
8.11. R&D, initiatives and demonstration projects, H2 infrastructure:
8.11.1. EU
8.11.2. UK
8.11.3. Germany
8.11.4. Nordic countries
8.11.5. Further countries in Europe
8.11.6. Japan
8.11.7. South Korea:
8.11.8. USA
8.11.9. India
8.11.10. China
8.11.11. South Africa
8.11.12. Brazil
8.11.13. Beside the BRICS
8.12. Players
8.12.1. Traditional fuel cell car manufacturers
8.12.2. The pioneers
8.12.3. But some changed for batteries...
8.12.4. Some started early and still don´t show clear direction...
8.13. Some alliances and initiatives
8.14. The OEMS and their fuel cell cars in detail
8.14.1. Daimler
8.14.2. GM
8.14.3. Honda
8.14.4. Toyota
8.14.5. VW Group
8.14.6. Audi
8.14.7. Hyundai
8.14.8. Nissan
8.15. Some newer suppliers and users examined
8.15.1. Overview
8.15.2. Intelligent Energy
8.15.3. Michelin F-CITY
8.15.4. Riversimple
8.15.5. Belenos F-500 (fuel cell range extender)
8.15.6. Ecomove (QBEAK)
8.15.7. GreenGT
8.15.8. Other approaches
8.16. Shale gas profitability doubts cast shadow on fuel cell cars launch
1.1. Global sales of electric, homologated, on-road cars number thousands 2013-2024, rounded 
1.2. Global sales of electric cars ex factory unit price in thousands of dollars, 2013-2024, rounded 
1.3. Global sales of electric cars total value in billions of dollars 2013-2024, rounded 
1.4. Value of the hybrid, pure electric and total electric car market in billions of dollars 2013-2024, rounded 
1.5. MicroEV quadricycle forecasts 2012-2024 
1.6. IDTechEx projection for global hybrid car sales (percentage) by territory 2010-2020 
1.7. Number sold by market leader Toyota of all hybrids globally, market share and market drivers 
1.8. Global sales of electric golf cars in number thousands, ex factory unit price in thousands of dollars and total value in billions of dollars 2013-2024, rounded 1.9. IDTechEx projections for global hybrid car sales units as % of total car sales 2009-2025 
1.10. Examples of traditional limitations and market trends by type of basic design of traction motor Those used mainly on large vehicles shown in green. Those on smaller vehicles and high performance vehicles and in-wheel shown red. 
2.1. European Green Car Initiative approximate R&D budget 2010 to 2013 in millions of Euros 
2.2. Over 80 examples of manufacturers and intending manufacturers of electric cars and car-like MicroEVs 
3.1. 15 examples of golf EV manufacturers 
4.1. Major market drivers for growth in hybrid sales 
4.2. Objectives of the Ricardo QinetiQ diesel hybrid vs the Prius gasoline hybrid 
4.3. Toyota Prius Sales by region 1997-2008 in thousands of units 
4.4. Hybrid electric vehicles and associated events 1876-2011 
6.1. Three generations of range extender with examples of construction, manufacturer and power output 
7.1. Crude oil prices 2003-2008 $/barrel 
7.2. Global oil reserves, production and life 
7.3. Value of the hybrid, pure electric and total electric car market in billions of dollars 2013-2024, rounded 
7.4. Toyota Prius Sales by region 1997-2008 in thousands of units 
7.5. Prius US sales in units 2000-2008 
7.6. Estimates for historical global hybrid car sales in units by territory with % of whole. 
7.7. Prius US sales in number and percent of US hybrid market 
7.8. IDTechEx projection for global hybrid car sales (percentage) by territory 2010-2020 
7.9. Number sold by market leader Toyota of all hybrids globally, market share and market drivers 
7.10. IDTechEx projections for global hybrid car sales units as % of total car sales 2009-2025 
7.11. Global sales of electric golf cars and motorised golf caddies in number thousands, ex factory unit price in thousands of dollars and total value in billions of dollars 2013-2024, rounded 
7.12. Fuel cell EVs compared with battery pure EVs and ICE hybrids 
7.13. Number of gas stations ("service stations") by region in 2010 
1.1. Global sales of electric cars number thousands, 2013-2024, rounded 
1.2. Global sales of electric cars ex factory unit price in thousands of dollars, 2013-2024, rounded 
1.3. Global sales of electric cars total value in billions of dollars 2013-2024, rounded 
1.4. Global pure electric car sales 2009-2020 excluding golf cars and cumulative number of new models since 2000 
1.5. IDTechEx projection for global hybrid car sales (percentage) by territory 2010-2020 
1.6. Number sold by market leader Toyota of all hybrids globally 
1.7. Rough count of new models of hybrid car from 2010-2014, one of the leading indicators of future hybrid car sales 
1.8. The dominant countries launching hybrid models from 2010-2014 
1.9. Distribution of electric vehicles in circulation according to model in 2013 plus the now defunct Fisker hybrid 
1.10. Number of electric 4-wheelers in Europe 
1.11. Number of electric 2-wheelers in Europe 
1.12. Tesla priorities in yellow by EV type in the IDTechEx number K market projection 2014-2024 
2.1. Geographical distribution of companies making or intending to make electric cars
2.2. Carbon Intensity CO2 kg/kWh and % Fossil fuel in power sector 
2.3. LCA greenhouse emissions of a compact car with different drive trains
2.4. Carbon emissions, in grams CO2 per km, of a selection of cars for sale in the UK 
3.1. Trouvé pure EV car in 1881 
3.2. Red Bug pure EV in 1930 
3.3. Sinclair C5 
3.4. Aptera 
3.5. Gemcars 
3.6. Tonaro from China 
3.7. Suzhou Eagle two and four seat golf cars from China 
3.8. Yongkang Fourstar from China 
3.9. Shadong Wuzheng golf cars 
4.1. Evolution of EV design for on-road and many non-road vehicles 
4.2. Chevrolet Volt battery, generator and drive unit positioning 
4.3. Average annual fuel consumption in US gallons by vehicle type 
4.4. Toyota Prius Sales by region 1997-2008 in thousands of units 
4.5. Subaru's Viziv 2 Concept 
5.1. Examples of range extenders using a generator and ones with inherent electricity generation marked fuelgen 
5.2. Performance of new and improved supercapacitors and their variants 
5.3. Cars with photovoltaic harvesting. Top pure electric, bottom the hybrid Fisker Karma car 
5.4. Drayson pure electric racing car in the UK pioneers many new technologies including continuous charging and structural batteries 
5.5. Millenworks light hybrid vehicle ie not plug-in. 
6.1. Some hybrid variants 
6.2. Evolution of plug in vs mild hybrids 
6.3. Trend to deep hybridisation 
6.4. Evolution of hybrid structure 
6.5. Price premium for hybrid buses 
6.6. Three generations of lithium-ion battery with technical features that are sometimes problematical 
6.7. Battery price assisting price of hybrid and pure electric vehicles as a function of power stored. 
6.8. Probable future improvement in parameters of lithium-ion batteries for pure electric and hybrid EVs 
6.9. Comparison of battery technologies 
6.10. Where supercapacitors fit in 
6.11. Energy density vs power density for storage devices 
6.12. Indicative trend of charging and electrical storage for large hybrid vehicles over the next decade. 
6.13. Evolution of construction of range extenders over the coming decade 
6.14. Examples of range extender technology in the shaft vs no shaft categories 
6.15. Illustrations of range extender technologies over the coming decade with "gen" in red for those that have inherent ability to generate electricity 
6.16. The principle of the Proton Exchange Membrane fuel cells 
6.17. Trend of size of the largest (in red) and smallest (in green) fuel cell sets used in 98 bus trials worldwide over the last twenty years. 
6.18. Evolution of traction batteries and range extenders for large hybrid electric vehicles as they achieve longer all-electric range over the next decade. 
6.19. Main modes of rotational energy harvesting in vehicles 
6.20. Main forms of photovoltaic energy harvesting on vehicles 
6.21. Maximum power from the most powerful forms of energy harvesting on or in vehicles 
6.22. Hybrid bus with range improved by a few percent using solar panels 
6.23. Possible trend in battery power storage and voltage of power distribution 
6.24. Mitsubishi view of hybrid vehicle powertrain evolution 
6.25. Flat lithium-ion batteries for a car and, bottom, UAVs 
6.26. Supercapacitors that facilitate fast charging and discharging of the traction batteries are spread out on a bus roof 
7.1. Global bicycle and car production millions 
7.2. US oil production and imports 
7.3. HEV battery sales by type 2000-2006 
7.4. Toyota Prius Sales by region 1997-2008 in thousands of units 
7.5. US hybrid sales by month showing sharp drop in 2008 and early 2009 
7.6. Estimates for historical global hybrid car sales in units by territory with % of whole 
7.7. Prius US sales in number and percent of US hybrid market 
7.8. Hybrid vehicle sales by manufacturer 2000-2006 
7.9. Reported hybrid vehicle sales in the USA as a percentage of total new light vehicle sales in March 2009 
7.10. Global hybrid vehicle market by country % 2007 
7.11. Hybrid vehicle purchases by state in the USA in units 2007 
7.12. US hybrid vehicle sales by manufacturer percentage 2007 
7.13. Hybrid vehicle sales by model 
7.14. 2006 forecast of total car sales by region 2006/2011 and 2016 in millions of units 
7.15. IDTechEx projection for global hybrid car sales (percentage) by territory 2010-2020 
7.16. Number sold by market leader Toyota of all hybrids globally and market drivers 
7.17. IDTechEx projections for global hybrid car sales units as % of total car sales 
7.18. Rechargeable battery sales by type 1972-2010
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