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Future TV: 2025

Published: May 2015 | No Of Pages: 39 | Published By: IDate

Product Synopsis

Internet TV & entertainment operators: disruptions ahead

The TV market is shaken to its very core, profound changes will happen between now and 2025. There will be – and already are– disruptions with important impacts on the audiovisual landscape.

Our new prospective report provides a snapshot of the most likely disruptions in TV content distribution up to 2025 as well as in user behaviour. It analyses how the industry’s structure is changing and then presents in detail the long-term options available to market players. Lastly the study also offers complete market figures up to 2025 for both retained scenarios.

1. Executive Summary
1.1. A TV market being shaken to its very core
1.2. Profound changes between now and 2025
1.3. Impact of the disruptions ahead
1.4. Options available to market players

2. Methodology & definitions
2.1. General methodology of IDATE's reports
2.2. Methodology specific to this report
2.3. Definitions & acronyms

3. Key trends
3.1. in consumer behaviour
3.1.1. Consumers in the driver's seat amidst a plethora of content
3.1.2. From household to individual plans
3.2.in distribution
3.2.1. Key links in the distribution chain moving to the cloud...
3.2.2.encouraging self-distribution
3.3.in the economics of services
3.3.1. Ubiquitous competition...
3.3.2.weighing on prices and ad rates
3.3.3.and altering revenue distribution

4. 2025: a snapshot
4.1. Mostly on-demand viewing
4.2. The reign of entertainment operators
4.3. Content is king
4.4. The rule of yield management
4.5. A largely concentrated and globalised market
4.6. Transparent networks

5. The market in figures
5.1. The "Business as usual" scenario
5.2. The "Disruption" scenario
5.2.1. Key hypotheses
5.2.2. Results
5.3. Comparison of the two scenarios
5.4. How the "Disruption" scenario affects players' margins
5.5. How the TV sector's economics will evolve: a summary

6. Options available to veteran players
6.1. The winners and losers of the TV industry shake-up
6.2. Internet companies' strengths and weaknesses
6.3. Options available to TV channels
6.3.1. SWOT analysis of free to air channels
6.3.2. SWOT analysis of pay-TV channels
6.3.3. Strategic options
6.4. Content producers
6.4.1. SWOT analysis of European content producers
6.4.2. SWOT analysis of American content producers
6.4.3. Strategic options
6.5. Network operators
6.5.1. SWOT analysis of broadcast network operators (DTT, satellite)
6.5.2. SWOT analysis of wireline network operators (cable, IPTV)
6.5.3. Strategic options
6.6. Is European consolidation a must?

7. Appendix: detailed figures
7.1. "Business as usual" scenario
7.2. "Disruption" scenario

Table 1: The rise of selective bundles
Table 2: Increase in average Internet connection speeds between 2009 and 2014, worldwide and in the countries with the fastest networks
Table 3: TV audience concentration in a selection of European countries, in 2013
Table 4: Comparison of TV channel and TV ad market growth in Europe
Table 5: Examples of traditional and new pay-TV service prices, at the start of 2015
Table 6: Examples of direct distribution initiatives by Hollywood studios
Table 7: 11 reasons why Europe needs a consolidated TV industry
Table 8: “Business as usual” scenario – Worldwide – by service 2015-2025
Table 9: “Business as usual” scenario – Worldwide – by region
Table 10: “Business as usual” scenario in Europe's five biggest markets
Table 11: “Business as usual” scenario – Worldwide – by revenue source
Table 12: “Disruption” scenario – Worldwide – by service, 2015-2025
Table 13: “Disruption” scenario – Worldwide – by region
Table 14: “Disruption” scenario in Europe's five biggest markets
Table 15: “Disruption” scenario – Worldwide – by revenue source
Table 16: “Disruption” scenario – Worldwide – breakdown of TV sector margins, excluding home video

Figure 1: Model employed for quantified forecasts up to 2025
Figure 2: Change in the size of US households, 1960 vs. 2010
Figure 3: Growth in the number of TVs, laptop computers and tablets in use worldwide
Figure 4: The many ways available to watch videos
Figure 5: Growth of video devices worldwide, 2013-2018
Figure 6: Self-distribution
Figure 7: Video industry revenue losses due to piracy
Figure 9: Netflix subscriber growth and change in live TV screen time in the United States, 2012 – 2014
Figure 10: Advertising revenue breakdown: traditional media vs. online
Figure 11: Breakdown of TV market players' investments in programming in the United States in 2015
Figure 12: Comparison of audience share and ad revenue: linear vs. catch-up TV in France, in 2014
Figure 13: The distribution scheme for pay-TV services
Figure 14: Pro-forma breakdown of HBO's operating expenses in the United States, in 2013
Figure 15: Pro-forma breakdown of Netflix operating expenses in the United States, in 2013
Figure 16: Eight fundamental disruptions for television in 2025
Figure 17: Video industry structure in the era of Internet TV and entertainment operators
Figure 18: Growth of the global TV market by service, 2015-2025 – “Business as usual” scenario
Figure 19: Growth of the global TV market by region, 2015-2025 – “Business as usual” scenario
Figure 20: Growth of the global TV market by service, 2015-2025 – “Disruption” scenario
Figure 21: Growth of the global TV market by region, 2015-2025 – “Disruption” scenario
Figure 22: Comparison of the “Business as usual” and “Disruption” scenarios – Worldwide
Figure 23: Comparison of VOD market share under the two scenarios in 2025 – Worldwide
Figure 24: Change in the breakdown of players' margins, 2015 and 2025
Figure 25: SWOT analysis of Internet companies
Figure 26: SWOT analysis of free to air channels
Figure 27: SWOT analysis of pay-TV channels
Figure 28: SWOT analysis of European content producers
Figure 29: SWOT analysis of America content producers
Figure 30: SWOT analysis of broadcast network operators (DTT, satellite)
Figure 31: SWOT analysis of wireline network operators (cable, IPTV)
Figure 32 : Strategic options available to veteran TV market players

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