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The Pharmaceutical Market: Zambia

Published: Nov 2014 | No Of Pages: 62 | Published By: Espicom

Product Synopsis

OVERVIEW OF THE PHARMACEUTICAL MARKET IN ZAMBIA
 
The majority of investment in Zambia's healthcare market stems from international aid agencies - so the news that the government has increased its allocation for healthcare spending in the 2013 budget will be well received by both NGOs and international investors as a sign that Zambia is taking its commitment to healthcare seriously. The country suffers from a burden of both communicable and non-communicable diseases, with a high incidence of HIV and AIDs, malaria, and problems such as cholera emerging in Q4 12, but it is making progress. The government claims it has already met its millennium development goals for turbercolosis, and is on target to meet other healthcare goals. Risks remain, such as the presence of counterfeit and substandard drugs, and the reliance on copper export means Zambia's economy has a narrow base.
 
Headline Expenditure Projections
 
  • Pharmaceuticals: ZMK951bn (US$196mn) in 2011 to ZMK1,095bn (US$207mn) in 2012; +15.1% in local currency terms and +5.7% in US dollar terms. Forecast lowered slightly from Q4 12.
  • Healthcare: ZMK5,347bn (US$1.10bn) in 2011 to ZMK6,290bn (US$1.19bn) in 2012; +17.6% in local currency terms and +8.0% in US dollar terms. Forecast lowered slightly from Q4 12.
Risk/RewardRating
 
In Q1 13, Zambia remained steady at 21st best market in the MEA region in BMI's proprietary Risk/Reward Ratings (RRR) matrix with a score of 39.6.
 
Competitive Landscape
 
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and rankings by US$ sales and % share of total sales - for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics, and distribution sub-sectors.
BMI Industry View7
SWOT9
Political10
Economic11
Business Environment13
Industry Forecast15
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast15
 
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (Zambia 2010-2018)16
 
Healthcare Market Forecast17
 
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Zambia 2010-2018)20
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Zambia 2010-2018)21
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Zambia 2010-2018)22
 
Macroeconomic Forecasts23
 
Table: GDP By Expenditure (Zambia 2011-2018)26
 
Industry Risk Reward Ratings27
Middle East & Africa Risk/Reward Ratings27
Zambia Risk/Reward Ratings34
Rewards34
Risks34
Market Overview36
Industry Trends And Developments39
Epidemiology39
Healthcare Sector41
Regulatory Development46
Demographic Forecast51
 
Table: Zambia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)52
Table: Zambia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)53
Table: Zambia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-202054
Table: Zambia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-202054
 
Glossary55
Methodology57
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model57
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model57
Notes On Methodology58
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology59
Ratings Overview60
 
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators60
 
Indicator Weightings61
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