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Transport and Logistics Services Market in 2011-2012 And Forecast to 2015

Published: Sep 2013 | No Of Pages: 162 | Published By: RBC.Market Research

Product Synopsis

 
The survey is devoted to the analysis of the latest development trends and prospects for the Russian transport and logistics services market.
 
The work provides a detailed review of the situation in the global and Russian logistics outsourcing markets, quotes the most important performance indicators of the sector in 2011-2012 and January-July 2013, as well as estimates for 2013, and contains a forecast for the development of major segments of the logistics market through 2015.
 
The section "Global Transport and Logistics Market" contains an analysis of the situation in major segments of the global logistics market. The markets in EU countries are studied in more detail, giving a timeline of financial results reported by major 3PL providers in 2012.
 
The survey of the Russian transport and logistics services market is comprehensive in nature and contains a detailed analysis describing the development of freight transportation and forwarding, warehousing and management services. The review provides estimates for the logistics market size, including 2PL and 3PL segments, in volume and value terms.
 
The section International Freight market contains data on the dynamics and structure of foreign trade freight traffic in 2011-2012 and in January-June 2013. The changes that occurred in the Russian container transport market, including transshipment in ports and carriage by rail, are analyzed.
 
The section devoted to the Russian warehousing services market analyzes supply and demand in the commercial warehousing property market in 2012, dynamics and structure of the storage and distribution services market, and trends in the development of the logistics market in metropolitan regions and other constituent entities of the Russian Federation in 2012.
 
A separate section includes an analysis of competitive environment, financial performance of Russian and foreign transport and logistics companies in 2011-2012, as well the market consolidation.
 
The section Growth Potential for the Russian Transport and Logistics Services Market in 2013-2015 contains a forecast for the development of Russian economy and foreign trade (RF MED, April 2013), and RBC.research estimates for physical and value indicators of logistics market segments up to 2015.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 2
Figures 6
Tables 11 
 
RESUME 14
 
GLOBAL TRANSPORT AND LOGISTICS MARKET 17
The world economy in 2012-2015 17
Dynamics of the main TLS market segments 19
The dynamics and structure of the global market of transport and logistics services 19
International consignments 21
Customs brokerage services 23
Contract logistics 24
Geographic structure of the world market of 3PL services 25
European market 26
The dynamics and structure 26
The biggest players 27
RUSSIAN MARKET OF TRANSPORT AND LOGISTICS SERVICES 30
Economy of the Russian Federation in 2011-2012 30
The scope and structure of the logistics outsourcing market 30
The market for transport services 36
The dynamics and structure of the freight transportation 36
The value of the transport services market 41
Rail freight activity 42
Automotive transport 47
Freight transport by ea 51
Cargo handling in ports 54
Inland waterways 62
Airfreight 66
International freight market 71
Dynamics of foreign trade cargo traffic 71
The structure of export cargo traffic 73
The structure of import cargo traffic 77
The dynamics and structure of freight traffic by mode of transport 82
International container shipping 90
The structure of export container traffic 91
Structure of the import container traffic 94
Transshipment of containers at ports 97
Transportation of containers by rail 101
The volume of container shipping market 103
Warehouse services market 104
The demand for warehouse services 105
The warehouse space offer 108
The balance of supply and demand, the level of rents 109
Space and structure of the warehouse property market and warehousing services 111
The Moscow Region 119
St. Petersburg and the Leningrad Region 124
Regional markets 130
Competitive environment 137
The main players 137
Mergers and acquisitions 142
The Russian market of express delivery 147
 
GROWTH POTENTIAL OF RUSSIAN TRANSPORT AND LOGISTICS SERVICES MARKET IN 2013-2015 150
Forecast of the Russian economy development in 2013-2015 150
The market for transport services 151
Warehouse Services market 156
Forecast of dynamics of transport and logistics services market 159
Table 1. Global logistics costs and turnover in the 3PL services segment by region in 2011 г., $bn, % 26
Table 2. Key indicators of Russia's economic development in 2009-2012, % versus the corresponding period in the previous year 30
Table 3. Comparison of GDP, logistics costs and key indicators of transport and logistics markets in the U.S., Europe, China and Russia in 2011, $bn 31
Table 4.  Average annual exchange rate of US dollar in 2007-20132, RUB/US$ 32
Table 5. Inflation level and rail freight rates in Russia in 2006-2012, %
33
Table 6. Volume of 2PL and 3PL segments of the Russian transport and logistics services market in 2012, $billion, % 34
Table 7. Volume of the Russian 3PL market (gross and net revenue of 3PL providers) in 2008-2012, $billion and % 35
Table 8. Commercial cargo transportation by modes of transport of all branches of industry in 2008-2012, million tons, % 36
Table 9. Commercial freight turnover by modes of transport of all branches of industry in 2008-2012, billion tkm, % 37
Table 10. Commercial cargo transportation and freight turnover by mode of public transport in Russia in 2011-2012, million tons, billion tkm, % 39
Table 11.Dynamics of freight transportation tariffs by mode of public transport in 2010-2012, % 41
Table 12. Value of Russian transportation services market by major segments (including revenues from transshipment in ports and airports) in 2008-2013, RUB billion and % 42
Table 13. Key operating indicators of JSCo RZD in 2008-2012 43
Table 14. Handling volumes of primary types of cargo on JSCo RZD network in 2008-2012, million tones 44
Table 15. Indexation of rail freight rates in Russia in 2006-2012, % 45
Table 16. Freight revenues of JSCo RZD subsidiaries from freight transportation in 2008-2011, RUB billion 45
Table 17. Leading private operators by net revenues  in 2010-2011, RUB billion, % 46
Table 18. Dynamics of rail transportation market by segments in 2008-2012, RUB billion, % 47
Table 19. Cargo transportation volume and freight turnover of road transport in Russia, 2008-2012, million tons, billion tkm 49
Table 20. Freight transportation and turnover by sea transport of RF in 2008-2011, million tons and billion tkm 52
Table 21. Volumes of dry and liquid cargo handled in Russian sea ports in 2010-2012, million tons, % 55
Table 22. Transshipment volumes in Russian sea ports (major ports and basins), 2010-2012, million tons, % 59
Table 23. Value of the Russian market for sea transportation and stevedoring services in  2008-2012, RUB million, % 61
Table 24. Cargo transportation volume and freight turnover of inland water transport in Russia, 2008-2011, million tons and billion tkm 63
Table 25. Value of the Russian market for inland water freight transportation and stevedoring services in river ports in 2008-2012, RUB billion, % 65
Table 26. Freight turnover and cargo and mail transportation by Russian civil aviation in 2008-2012 (international and domestic service), thousand tons, million tkm 66
Table 27. Ranking of the TOP 15 airlines in Russia by freight turnover and volume of cargo and mail carried in 2011-2012 (international and domestic services), million tkm, thousand tons 69
Table 28. Value of major air logistics market segments (cargo transportation) in 2008-2012, RUB billion 70
Table 29. Russian export freight traffic volume distributed by major commodity groups, 2008-2011, million tons and % 73
Table 30. Volume of import goods traffic in the distribution by integrated commodity groups in 2008-2011, million tons, % 77
Table 31. Volume of export and import cargo transportation by rail in Russia, by route, in 2010-2012, million tons and % 84
Table 32. Volume of Russian foreign trade cargo handled in Russian, Baltic and Ukrainian sea ports in 2009-2012, million tons 86
Table 33. Volume and level of containerization of foreign trade freight traffic in Russia, 2008-2011, million tons 90
Table 34. Dynamics of containerized export traffic from Russia by major commodity group, 2008-2011, thousand tons, % 92
Table 35. Export cargo containerization level in Russia by major commodity group, 2008-2011, % 92
Table 36. Dynamics of import container traffic in Russia by major commodity group, 2008-2011, thousand tons, % 94
Table 37. Containerization level for Russian export cargoes by major commodity group, 2010-2011, % 95
Table 38. Dynamics of container transshipment volume in Russian sea ports in 2011-2012, % 100
Table 39. Transportation of large-tonnage containers by rail on international routes, 2008-2012, thousand TEUs 101
Table 40. Dynamics of the volume of the container transportation market distributed by major segment, 2008-2012, million TEUs and % 103
Table 41. Assessing the level of vacancy rate of quality commercial warehouses in Moscow, St. Petersburg and the Russian regions in 2011-2012 115
Table 42. Volume of the Russian market services provided in high quality warehouses, 2007-2012, million sq. m, RUB billion, $ billion 117
Table 43. Main quality warehouse facilities delivered in Moscow and MR in 2011 120
Table 44. Main quality warehouse facilities delivered in Moscow and MR in 2012 121
Table 45. Expected delivery of quality warehouse facilities in Moscow and MR  in 2013 121
Table 46. Main transactions in the quality warehouse market of Moscow and MR in 2012 123
Table 47. Main quality warehouse facilities delivered in St. Petersburg and LR in 2011 125
Table 48. Main quality warehouse facilities delivered in St. Petersburg and LR in 2012 126
Table 49. Expected delivery of quality warehouse facilities in St. Petersburg and LR  in 2013 127
Table 50. Main transactions in the quality warehouse market of St. Petersburg and LR in 2012 128
Table 51. Volume of Class A and B warehouses in the largest Russian Regions in 2011-2012, th. sq m 133
Table 52. Volume of quality warehouse delivered in the largest Russian Regions in 2011-2012, th. sq m 133
Table 53. Main warehouse facilities delivered in the Russian regions in 2011 134
Table 54. Main warehouse facilities delivered in the Russian regions in 2012 134
Table 55. Main transactions for lease in the quality warehouse market in the Russian regions in 2011 135
Table 56. Main transactions for lease in the quality warehouse market in the Russian regions in 2012 136
Table 57. The average stated rental rates of Class A warehouses in Russian regions in Q3 2008, Q3 2011, Q3 2012, $/sq m per year (triple net) 137
Table 58. Revenues of major transportation groups in Russia, 2009-2012, $ million 138
Table 59. Revenues of major operators of the road freight transport in Russia, 2009-2012, $ million 138
Table 60. Revenues of Russian and foreign logistics providers in Russia, 2009-2012, $ million 140
Table 61. Revenues of Russian and foreign logistics providers in Russia, 2009-2012, RUB million 141
Table 62. M&A deals on the Russian transport and logistic services market, 2008-2012 145
Table 63. Volume Russian express delivery market, turnover of Top 11 companies in 2008-2012, $million and % 148
Table 64. Forecast for dynamics of the value of Russian transportation and logistics services market segments, 2009-2015, RUB billion, % 161
Table 65. Forecast for dynamics of the Russian market for 3PL services (gross and net revenues of 3PL providers), 2009-2015, $ billion and % 162
Fig. 1. Real GDP growth in 2007-2012, forecast  for 2013-2015, % 18
Fig. 2. World Trade Volume (goods and services) in 2007-2012, forecast for 2013-2014, % 18
Fig. 3. Global transport and logistics market in 2006-2012, $bn 19
Fig. 4. Structure of the global transport and logistics services market in 2006-2012, % 20
Fig. 5. Volume of the global logistics outsourcing market and 3PL segment in 2006-2012 гг., $bn 20
Fig. 6. Global container transportation volumes in 2005-2012, million TEUs 21
Fig. 7. Structure of the global container transportation market control in 2011 г., % 22
Fig. 8. Global airfreight market in 2006-2013, $bn 23
Fig. 9. Global market for customs brokerage services in 2006-2012, $bn, % 24
Fig. 10. Global contract logistics market volume in 2005-2012 гг., €bn, % 25
Fig. 11. Geographical structure of the global logistics market and 3PL services segment in  2010- 2011, % 26
Fig. 12. Revenues of TOP 12 European logistics companies in 2007-2012, €bn, % 27
Fig. 13. Revenue dynamics of leading European 3PL companies in 2009-2011, % 28
Fig. 14. Top 12 logistics companies in Europe in terms of revenue in 2009-2012, € bn 29
Fig. 15. Dynamics of the Russian transport and logistics services market (logistics outsourcing) in 2007-2013, RUB billion and % 32
Fig. 16. Dynamics of the Russian transport and logistics services market (logistics outsourcing) in 2007-2013, $billion and % 32
Fig. 17. Growth of Russian transport and logistics services market by segments in 2012 versus 2011, % 33
Fig. 18. Structure of the Russian transport and logistics market by type of serviceг in 2012, % 34
Fig. 19. Volume of Russian transport and logistics services market by segments in 2010-2012, RUB billion 34
Fig. 20. Dynamics of commercial cargo transportation and freight turnover by modes of transport of all branches of industry in 2008-2013, % 37
Fig. 21. Dynamics of commercial freight transportation and freight turnover across all sectors by mode of transport in Russia in 2011-2012, % 38
Fig. 22.Commercial freight transportation and freight turnover across all sectors by mode of transport in Russia in 2011-2012, million tons, billion tkm 38
Fig. 23. The structure of commercial freight turnover by modes of transport of the Russian Federation in 2012, % 39
Fig. 24. Dynamics of commercial cargo transportation and freight turnover across all sectors of Russian economy by mode of transport, January-July 2013 to January-June 2012, % 40
Fig. 25. Structure of the Russian transportation services market (including revenues from transshipment in ports and airports) in 2012, % 42
Fig. 26. Monthly dynamics of freight tonnage handled by rail (commercial transportation, excluding industrial rail transport) in Russia in January 2008 - July 2013, million tons 43
Fig. 27. Structure of freight transported by Russian Railways network in 2012, % 45
Fig. 28. Volume of rail freight transportation market  by segments  (JSC Russian Railways and private operators) in 2008-2012 , RUB billion 46
Fig. 29. Monthly dynamics of commercial cargo transportation by road transport across all sectors of the Russian economy, January 2008 - July  2013, million tons 48
Fig. 30. Monthly dynamics of commercial cargo turnover by road transport across all sectors of the Russian economy, January 2008 - July  20132, billion tkm 48
Fig. 31. Dynamics of commercial freight transportation and cargo turnover by automotive transport of all sectors of the Russian economy in 2008-2013, million tons, billion tkm 49
Fig. 32. Road freight rate indices in Russia, January 2009 - December 2012, % to December of the previous year 50
Fig. 33. Dynamics of the value of the road freight transportation market (commercial road transport)  in Russia in 2008-2013, RUB billion 51
Fig. 34. Dynamics of the road freight transportation services market (transport organizations and hired entrepreneurs)  in Russia in 2008-2013, RUB billion 51
Fig. 35. Monthly dynamics of commercial sea freight transportation in Russia, January 2008 - September  2012, million tons 52
Fig. 36. Monthly dynamics of commercial sea turnover  in Russia, January 2008 - September  2012, billion tkm 53
Fig. 37. Dynamics of cargo transportation and freight turnover of sea transport in Russia in 2008-2012, million tons, billion tkm 53
Fig. 38. Sea freight rate indices in Russia, January 2009 - December 2012, % to December of the previous year 54
Fig. 39. Dynamics of the value of the sea freight market in Russia, 2007-2012, RUB billion 54
Fig. 40. Dynamics of freight transshipment in Russian ports in 2007-2012, million t , % 55
Fig. 41. Dynamics of freight transshipment in Russian ports by type of cargo in 2011-2012, % 56
Fig. 42. Structure of cargo handled in Russian sea ports  in 2012, % 57
Fig. 43. Structure of cargo handled in Russian sea ports  by destination in 2012, % 57
Fig. 44. Structure of cargo handled in Russian sea ports  by basin in 2012, % 58
Fig. 45. Dynamics of cargo handled in Russian ports of by basin in 2011-2012, % 59
Fig. 46.  Volumes of cargo handled in Russian sea ports by basin in 2010-2012, million tons 59
Fig. 47. Dynamics of stevedoring services market value in Russian ports in 2008-2012, RUB billion 61
Fig. 48. Monthly dynamics of commercial cargo transportation by inland water transport in Russia, January 2008 - September 2012, million tons 63
Fig. 49. Monthly dynamics of commercial freight turnover by inland water transport in Russia, January 2008 - September 2012, million tons 64
Fig. 50. Commercial cargo transportation volume and freight turnover of inland water transport in Russia in 2008-2012, million tons, billion tkm 64
Fig. 51. Freight rate indices for inland water transport in Russia, January 2008 - December 2012, % to  December of the previous year 65
Fig. 52. Dynamics of the value of the inland water freight market in Russia in 2008-2012, RUB billion 65
Fig. 53. Shares of Russian airlines in the total volume of cargo and mail carried in Russia in 2011, % 67
Fig. 54. Freight turnover and cargo and mail transportation by Russian civil aviation in 2008-2012, thousand tons, million tkm 68
Fig. 55. Dynamics of cargo and mail transportation by Top 15 Russian airlines in 2011-2012, % 68
Fig. 56. Dynamics of freight turnover by Top 15 Russian airlines in 2011-2012, % 69
Fig. 57. Air freight rate indices in Russia, January 2008 - December 2012, % to December of the previous year 70
Fig. 58. Dynamics of GDP and foreign trade freight traffic in Russia, 2007-2013, % 71
Fig. 59. Dynamics export and import freight traffic in Russia in 2008-2013, % 71
Fig. 60. Export and import freight traffic in Russia in 2008-2013, million tones 72
Fig. 61. Share of China in Russia's export freight traffic by commodity group in 2011, % 74
Fig. 62.Growth index of Russian export freight traffic to non-CIS countries by commodity group in 2011-2012, % 75
Fig. 63. Growth index of Russian export freight traffic by recipient country in 2011- 2012, % 75
Fig. 64. Distribution of Russia's export freight traffic by recipient country in 2012, % 76
Fig. 65. Freight traffic index for major commodity groups exported by RF, January-June 2013 to January-June 2012, % 76
Fig. 66. Distribution of import freight traffic in Russia by partner country in 2011, % 78
Fig. 67.  Growth index of Russian import freight traffic from the main partner countries in 2010-2011, % 79
Fig. 68. Growth index of Russian import freight traffic from non-CIS countries by commodity group in 2011-2012, % 80
Fig. 69. Growth index of Russian import freight traffic from main partner countries in 2011-2012, % 80
Fig. 70. Distribution of import freight traffic in Russia by partner country in 2012, % 81
Fig. 71. Import freight traffic index for major commodity groups, January-June 2013 to January-June 2012, % 82
Fig. 72. Distribution of Russia's foreign trade turnover (by the volume of cargo carried, excluding pipeline transport, via border crossings) in 2011, million tons and % 82
Fig. 73. Distribution of Russia's foreign trade turnover of Russian carriers (by the volume of cargo carried, excluding pipeline transport, via border crossings) in 2011, million tons and % 83
Fig. 74. Volume of foreign trade cargo transportation by rail in Russia (export, import and transit shipments in 2007-2012, million tons 84
Fig. 75. International road transportation of Russia's goods in 2007-2012, million tons 87
Fig. 76. Distribution of international road transportation of Russia's goods by main destinations in 2005-2011, % 87
Fig. 77. International road transportation of Russia's goods by main destinations in 2011, million tons 88
Fig. 78. Distribution of international road transportation of Russia's goods by carries in 2011, % 88
Fig. 79. International road transportation by Russian carries by main destinations in 2011, million tons 89
Fig. 80. International container transportation in Russia, 2004-2011, million tons 90
Fig. 81. Structure of containerized exports in Russia, 2011, % 91
Fig. 82. Distribution of containerized export traffic from Russia in 2010-2011 by Top 10 recipient countries, % 93
Fig. 83. Structure of containerized imports in Russia, 2011, % 94
Fig. 84. Distribution of import container traffic to Russia by manufacturing country, 2010-2011, % 96
Fig. 85. Dynamics of transshipment of Russian foreign trade cargoes in ports, 2006-2012, million TEUs 97
Fig. 86.  Volume of containerized export, import and transit cargo handled in Russian sea ports, 2008-2012, thousand TEUs 98
Fig. 87. Dynamics of container transshipment volume in Russian sea basins, 2010-2012, % 98
Fig. 88. Distribution of transshipment of foreign trade container cargoes by Russian sea basins in 2012, % 99
Fig. 89. Container transshipment volume in Russian sea basins in 2011-2012, thousand TEUs 99
Fig. 90. Structure of traffic of large-tonnage containers carried by rail on international routes, 2008-2012, % 102
Fig. 91. Value structure of the Russian container transport market by mode of transport, 2012, % 104
Fig. 92. Dynamics of quality warehouse space in the Russian Federation in 2008-2012, million square meters 112
Fig. 93. The quality warehouse space in Moscow, St. Petersburg and Russian regions in 2010-2012, million square meters 112
Fig. 94. Regional structure of quality warehouses in the Russian Federation in 2012, % 113
Fig. 95. Dynamics of quality commercial warehouse space in the Russian Federation in 2008-2012, million square meters 113
Fig. 96. The volume of quality commercial warehouses in Moscow, St. Petersburg and the Russian regions in 2009-2012, million square meters 114
Fig. 97. Vacancy rate of commercial quality warehouses in Moscow, St. Petersburg and the Russian regions in 2010-2012, % 115
Fig. 98. Volume of the Russian warehousing services market, 2007-2012, $ billion 116
Fig. 99. Dynamics of the warehousing services market volume, 2007-2012, $billion, % 116
Fig. 100. Dynamics of the warehousing services market volume, 2007-2012, RUB billion, % 117
Fig. 101. Regional structure of the market for services provided in high quality warehouses in Moscow, Saint Petersburg and Russian regions, 2012, % 118
Fig. 102. Value of the market for services provided in high quality warehouses in Moscow, Saint Petersburg and Russian regions, 2010-2012,  $ billion 118
Fig. 103.Dynamics of the market for services provided in high quality warehouses in Moscow, Saint Petersburg and Russian regions, 2010-2012,  % versus the previous year 118
Fig. 104. The volume of quality warehouses in Moscow and Moscow Region in 2007-2013, million square meters 120
Fig. 105. Volume of quality commercial warehouses in Moscow and Moscow Region in 2007-2013, million square meters 124
Fig. 106. Volume of quality warehouses in St. Petersburg and Leningrad Region in 2007-2013, million square meters 125
Fig. 107. Volume of quality commercial warehouses in St. Petersburg and LR in 2007-2012, million square meters 130
Fig. 108. Volume of quality  warehouses in Russian Regions in 2007-2013, million square meters 131
Fig. 109. Volume of quality commercial warehouses in Russian Regions in 2007-2013, million square meters 132
Fig. 110. Distribution  of quality warehouses in Russian regions in 2012, % 132
Fig. 111. Dynamics of Russian and foreign logistics providers' turnover in Russia,  2012 versus  2011, % 141
Fig. 112. Shares of main players in Russian express delivery market in 2012, % 148
Fig. 113. The growth forecast for freight turnover of transport organizations by modes of public transport in 2012-2015, billion tkm 154
Fig. 114. Forecast for growth of the Russian freight transportation market by mode of transport (including revenues from transhipment in ports and airports), 2012-2015, RUB billion 155
Fig. 115. Value structure of the Russian freight transportation market by mode of transport, 2015 (forecast), % 156
Fig. 116. Forecast for dynamics of the amount of high quality warehousing space in Russia in 2008-2015, million square meters 157
Fig. 117. Forecast for new warehousing facilities delivered in RF in 2009-2015, million square meters 158
Fig. 118. Forecast for growth of the amount of high quality warehousing space in Moscow, Saint Petersburg and Russian regions, 2012-2015, million square  eters 158
Fig. 119. Forecast for dynamics of the value of the Russian warehousing services market, 2008-2015, RUB billion 159
Fig. 120. Forecast for dynamics of the value of the Russian warehousing services market, 2008-2015, $ billion 159
Fig. 121. Forecast for dynamics of the Russian market of transport and logistics services, 2008-2015, RUB billion and % 160
Fig. 122. Forecast for dynamics of the Russian market of transport and logistics services, 2008-2015, $ billion and % 160
Fig. 123. Forecast for growth of the Russian transportation and logistics services market segments, 2012-2015, RUB billion 161
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