The market for air-source heat pumps is anticipated to expand at a CAGR of 12% during the forecast period of 2024 and 2032, as a result of the ongoing trend toward low-carbon heating and cooling technologies. Climate change is becoming an impetus for energy efficiency, resulting in stringent regulations to reduce carbon emissions. In 2023, minimum energy efficiency requirements for heat pumps in the United States will increase by 1.0 SEER to reach 15.0 SEER, per the DOE. Air-source heat pumps offer the capacity to minimize greenhouse gas emissions while realizing significant energy savings. The preferred trend toward environmentally benign refrigerants and low-carbon alternatives to meet space heating and cooling needs will enhance air source heat pump installation.
Global expenditures on commercial and residential infrastructure improvements are on the rise as a result of the increased financial support from administrators. These concerns have pushed market participants to engage in R&D to develop environmentally friendly HVAC systems. In June 2023, for instance, Trane announced the Ascend model ACX, an air-to-water heat pump system intended to assist households in achieving decarbonization objectives via electric cooling and heating. During the forecast period, the rapid green shift will create growth opportunities for developers of electric air source heat pumps. Energy is an essential source of power in homes, hospitals, schools, and other establishments. Nonetheless, its production and consumption generate massive greenhouse gas emissions. In order to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, major economies throughout the world are seeking to lessen their reliance on nonrenewable energy sources and are gradually turning toward renewable energy sources.
Heat pump technology is a promising means of lowering greenhouse gas emissions. Heat pumps provide an energy-efficient form of space heating by utilizing aerothermal and geothermal technology. When used in heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems, the heat pump is commonly regarded as an environmentally friendly technology. Residential, commercial, and industrial applications of heat pumps for space heating, cooling, and water heating are widespread. Both the air and the ground possess significant thermal energy stores. Low-temperature heat pumps take ambient heat from the air and ground and increase the temperature by the addition of energy, primarily electricity. The heat pump may capture up to 77% of the energy in the air. In comparison to other means of heat transfer, the use of heat pumps can greatly reduce the consumption of fossil fuels, hence minimizing the carbon footprint. This factor is driving market growth and increasing heat pump installations across all industries.
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Internet of Things (IoT)-based heat pumps offer predictive maintenance, real-time monitoring, and remote component diagnostics. Thermostats on Internet of Things-based heat pumps sense ambient changes and interact with their water heaters. Customers from diverse industries are increasingly adopting heat pumps. However, their designs and operations have not changed. Automation and remote control have been accorded a high priority for the development of user-friendly heat pumps for the future generation. Currently, heat pumps are equipped with LCD displays and warning signs to improve their use.
Leading businesses in the market, such as Panasonic and Samsung, are putting numerous technologies into their heat pumps to make them simpler to operate and maintain. Globally, research is also being conducted on the use of machine learning and artificial intelligence to heat pumps in an effort to reduce their electricity consumption and boost their efficiency. Using AI, researchers at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Lausanne (EPFL) are constructing a compressor with a 25% reduction in electricity use in mind. Using machine-learning techniques, the researchers generated heat pump design chart equations based on the outcomes of 500,000 simulations. Heat pumps integrated with machine learning and artificial intelligence can analyze consumer usage patterns and their operation time and duration, eliminating the need for manual on/off control. These factors are projected to raise the demand for heat pumps and create lucrative opportunities for market participants.
The heat pump is a complex piece of equipment. End-users in emerging and underdeveloped economies have a limited grasp of heat pumps' energy efficiency, cost efficiency, and environmental benefits, as well as their technical expertise. This characteristic is likely to hamper their penetration rate in emerging economies. According to a report published by the United Nations Environment Program, contractors lack awareness of the International Organization for Standardization (ISO) regulations for heat pumps. The ISO standards play an important role in ensuring the quality and security of the products and services in question. ISO 13612-2:2014, for instance, describes a method of computation for steady conditions that correspond to a single calculation step. These results are included in larger construction models that account for the influence of external influences. Consequently, a lack or limited understanding of the benefits of heat pumps and related ISO standards is likely to hinder the expansion of the market to some extent.
Despite their energy efficiency and other benefits, air-source heat pumps are more expensive to install than conventional alternatives. The inclusion of cleaner energy technology, such as solar heating and district heating, has resulted in a greater awareness of their availability. Alternative heat pump technologies and escalating implementation costs may hinder the commercialization of air-source heat pumps.
Internet of Things (IoT)-based heat pumps offer real-time monitoring, predictive maintenance, and remote component diagnostics. The Internet of Things (IoT)-based heat pumps have sophisticated thermostats that help monitor environmental changes and communicate with their water heater equipment. Customers from diverse industries are increasingly adopting heat pumps. However, their designs and operations have not changed. Automation and remote control have been accorded a high priority for the development of user-friendly heat pumps for future generation.
Currently, heat pumps are equipped with LCD displays and warning signs to improve their use. Leading businesses in the market, such as Panasonic and Samsung, are putting numerous technologies into their heat pumps to make them simpler to operate and maintain. Globally, research is also being conducted on the use of machine learning and artificial intelligence to heat pumps in an effort to reduce their electricity consumption and boost their efficiency. As an illustration, researchers at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Lausanne (EPFL) are employing AI to create a compressor with a 25% decrease in electricity use in mind. Using machine-learning techniques, the researchers generated heat pump design chart equations based on the outcomes of 500,000 simulations. Heat pumps integrated with machine learning and artificial intelligence can analyze consumer usage patterns and their operation time and duration, eliminating the need for manual on/off control. These factors are projected to raise the demand for heat pumps and create lucrative opportunities for market participants.
Heat pumps are widely used in the residential, commercial, and industrial sectors because they increase energy efficiency, decrease energy costs, and reduce carbon emissions. Air-source heat pumps are in high demand because they are less expensive and more efficient at heating homes and small businesses. Geothermal heat pumps are typically more expensive to install, but they are more efficient and appropriate for large buildings. The underground installation of high-density polyethylene pipes for geothermal heat pumps requires a team of specialists and at least three days.
The installation cost of heat pump systems for residential, commercial, and industrial applications depends on a number of criteria. In residential applications, for instance, the installation cost of all types of heat pumps is determined by the size of the home, the quantity of ducting necessary, the type of equipment, and the British Thermal Unit (BTU) value of the equipment. It also depends on the complexity, type, brand, and size of the heat pump.
By product type, the heat pump market is divided into air-to-air heat pumps, air-to-water heat pumps, water-source heat pumps, ground-source (geothermal) heat pumps, and hybrid heat pumps. The market for water-source heat pumps is expanding the quickest compared to other types of heat pumps. The key market driver for these heat pumps will be their better operational efficiency in comparison to existing heat pumps. A heat pump that extracts and converts thermal energy from water. The fundamental advantage of water source heat pumps is their ability to operate on water that is cooler than the air temperature.
The heat pump market is segmented by refrigerant type into R410A, R403C, R744, and others. The segment with the largest market share is R410A, followed by R407C. The R410A refrigerant might boost the system's efficiency rating. Additionally, it is less expensive to recharge the system with R410A. The R410A refrigerant segment of the heat pump market is predicted to be driven by little influence on the ozone layer throughout the forecast period.
The heat pump market is segmented by rated capacity into up to 10 kW, 10–20 kW, 20–30 kW, and over 30 kW. Up to 10 kW of rated capacity constituted 47% of the market in 2023. The up to 10 kW segment is predicted to be driven by the segment's major benefits and suitability for single-family houses, which will increase heat pump demand throughout the forecast period.
On the basis of the application, it is expected that the residential segment would grow at a CAGR of over 13.2% through 2031, given the consistent rise in population and rapid urbanization. In 2023, the residential segment accounted for 70% of the market. Government efforts to increase energy efficiency in the home sector are expected to boost the residential sector throughout the predicted period. In the United States, the federal tax credit for new residential ground-source heat pumps has been extended through 2023.
In addition, the government is implementing initiatives to address the need for adequate housing infrastructure. In May 2023, the U.S. government, for instance, released a Housing Supply Action Plan in an effort to eliminate the housing supply gap and create affordable housing units. These considerations will enhance the adoption of clean heating technologies such as air-source heat pump boilers in the residential sector.
Regionally, the market for air source heat pumps in Asia-Pacific will increase at a CAGR of 10.5% between 2024 and 2032, due to increased construction spending and population expansion. According to the International Trade Administration, the Korean construction industry, which comprises civil engineering services and public and private infrastructure, expanded by 9.2% in 2021. In addition, rising discretionary income and positive forecasts for the installation of energy-efficient heating and cooling solutions will lower energy expenses.
The global market for heat pumps is comprised of both multinational and local enterprises, making it one of the most competitive industries in the world. Multiple channels, including company websites, e-commerce websites, merchants, distributors, and end-users, are utilized by the companies to market their products. Major players in the air source heat pump market include Mitsubishi Electric Corporation, Vaillant Group, Trane, Swegon Group AB, Viessmann, NIBE Industrier AB, Bosch Thermotechnology Ltd., Carrier, Fujitsu General, Toshiba Air Conditioning, Panasonic Corporation, Lennox International Inc., LG Electronics, SAMSUNG, Glen Dimplex Group, and Systemair AB. These companies seek to make large investments to produce sustainable and effective solutions and expand their worldwide market presence. In November 2023, for instance, Mitsubishi Electric released the Ecodan CAHV-R, a series of cascaded air source heat pumps with output capabilities ranging from 7.8 kW to 640 kW for use in hospitals, schools, and other commercial applications. This project was intended to assist the company to establish a significant footprint in the industry.
